The 2024 Big 12 Championship Game is set to take place this Saturday, with high stakes on the line. The winner of this contest will not only claim the conference title but will also likely secure a spot in the College Football Playoff as one of the top-five conference champions in the final rankings. This thrilling matchup features No. 15 Arizona State squaring off against No. 16 Iowa State in a game that promises to deliver excitement, drama, and plenty of talent on both sides of the field.

The game is scheduled to kick off at noon ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Both teams enter the contest with a 10-2 overall record and a 7-2 conference record, but their paths to this championship clash have been filled with unexpected twists and turns. Despite being overlooked by many prior to the season, both teams have defied expectations, making this an intriguing matchup with plenty of narratives to follow. ESPN, USA Today, WTOP

Iowa State: The Cyclones’ Defensive Prowess and Steady Offense

In contrast to Arizona State’s high-flying offensive approach, Iowa State has built its success on its suffocating defense. The Cyclones have one of the best pass defenses in the nation, allowing just 156.9 passing yards per game, and their ability to shut down opposing quarterbacks has made them a formidable force. Iowa State’s defense allows only 52% completion on passes and 5.9 yards per attempt, numbers that place them near the top of the nation’s rankings in pass defense.

On the offensive side of the ball, quarterback Rocco Becht has quietly orchestrated a balanced attack, aided by the dynamic play of Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, both of whom have eclipsed the 1,000-yard receiving mark this season. While the Cyclones have relied heavily on their defense, their offense has found ways to capitalize on key opportunities. With a +9 turnover differential this season, Iowa State has been particularly effective at controlling the ball and limiting mistakes.

Although Iowa State was expected to finish around sixth in the Big 12 this season after a 6-3 conference record last year, they’ve shown resilience and consistency, allowing them to compete for the Big 12 crown in 2024.

Arizona State: From Underachievers to Big 12 Contenders

At the start of the 2024 season, Arizona State was considered one of the most unpredictable teams in college football. The Sun Devils had just finished a 3-9 season in the Pac-12 and were widely expected to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 standings in their first year as conference members. Yet, under the leadership of first-year head coach Kenny Dillingham, the team has been a revelation. Arizona State’s surprising rise to the Big 12 Championship game has been fueled by a combination of explosive offensive play and vastly improved defense.

Quarterback Sam Leavitt has been instrumental in the Sun Devils’ success, with solid performances throughout the season. Running back Cameron Skattebo has been a reliable force in the backfield, allowing the offense to strike a strong balance. Arizona State’s defense has made significant strides, limiting opponents to just 336.6 yards per game, down from almost 400 yards per game the previous year. With a five-game winning streak to finish the season and a 10-2 record against the spread, Arizona State has proven that they are capable of rising to the occasion when it matters most.

The Betting Odds: A Tight Contest

This year’s Big 12 Championship game is expected to be an intense and closely contested battle, with Arizona State entering the matchup as a 1-point favorite. The over/under for the game has been set at 50.5 points, reflecting the belief that this could be a hard-fought contest with both teams bringing their strengths to the table.

Iowa State comes into the game with a money line of -115, while Arizona State is listed at -105. The odds reflect how evenly matched these two teams are, and with so much on the line, this game promises to deliver on every level. For sports bettors, the predictions from Tom Fornelli, a highly respected college football expert with CBS Sports, offer valuable insights into how the game could unfold. Fornelli has been rock-solid in 2024, going 26-20 in his last 46 college football picks and 17-5 on Iowa State-related bets. His picks have earned his followers a net profit of over $1,314, making him one of the most trusted experts in the industry.

Why Arizona State Can Cover the Spread

Arizona State’s offense has been one of the most balanced in college football this season. Sam Leavitt has been efficient in the passing game, and Cameron Skattebo has provided stability in the backfield. The Sun Devils have been exceptional at scoring points and have managed to get the ball into the end zone with regularity. On the defensive side, Arizona State has improved drastically from last season, thanks to better play in the secondary and an overall better ability to limit opposing offenses.

With their 10-2 record against the spread, Arizona State has proven they can cover the numbers, and their five-game winning streak to end the season only strengthens their case. Their ability to score quickly, combined with a vastly improved defense, gives them an edge heading into the championship game. If they can continue their momentum, the Sun Devils have a good chance to cover the spread.

Why Iowa State Can Cover the Spread

Iowa State’s defense will be the key to the game. With one of the nation’s best pass defenses, they’ll be looking to shut down Sam Leavitt and Arizona State’s aerial attack. The Cyclones have proven throughout the season that they are tough to break down, especially in the secondary. With Rocco Becht playing solidly at quarterback and his two 1,000-yard receivers contributing to the offense, Iowa State has the offensive firepower to match Arizona State’s scoring ability.

Additionally, Iowa State has been excellent at forcing turnovers, with a +9 turnover differential that places them among the best in the nation. This ability to capitalize on mistakes could prove to be the difference in a tightly contested game. If Iowa State can control the pace and make key plays on both sides of the ball, they will have a chance to not only win but cover the spread as well.

The X-Factor: Key Players and Strategy

Both teams have strengths that they will need to exploit in order to win the game. For Arizona State, the key will be to continue their balanced offensive attack and avoid turnovers, while their defense must contain Iowa State’s passing game. On the other hand, Iowa State will need to lean on their dominant defense, specifically their ability to shut down the passing game, while also capitalizing on Arizona State’s injuries, especially with Jordyn Tyson sidelined.

The team that can execute its game plan most effectively will have the edge in this matchup.

How to Watch and Where to Bet

The game will be available to stream on FuboTV (with a free trial available), so fans can catch all the action from AT&T Stadium. For those looking to place bets on the game, SportsLine provides expert analysis and predictions, including from Tom Fornelli, whose track record in 2024 has made him a trusted resource for college football betting insights.

Final Thoughts: A Championship Game for the Ages

The 2024 Big 12 Championship Game promises to be an exciting matchup with plenty of talent on both sides. Whether it’s Arizona State’s explosive offense and improved defense or Iowa State’s dominant pass defense and steady offense, fans are in for a thrilling contest. With a trip to the College Football Playoff on the line, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

This game could very well be a preview of things to come, as both teams have shown they are capable of beating anyone in the country. Whoever wins will be one step closer to competing for a national title, but only one team will emerge as the 2024 Big 12 Champion.

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